Are you struggling with confidence in your trading system? Perhaps scared to pull the trigger on a trade? Maybe you’re opting out of trades because you’re worried it will be another loser?
Listen guys, there are so many decent trading systems out there. I’m guessing hundreds, but there could be thousands. Thousands of ways to make profits on the markets. Anyone who’s just selling you a trading system is a scammer who’s just after your money. Sure, my courses teach you systems to get you started, but anyone who’s done my courses will tell you that they are much more than that. I teach what it is you need to know to make trading a success and to teach you what you need to know in order to see profitable returns.
Here’s a hint. It’s not the systems. A system is like a tool in a plumbers tool belt. If you don’t know what the hell you’re doing then that tool is going to be worthless to you. You still wont be able to get the job done.
If you keep losses small and let winners run your system often only needs to be right 20% of the time to break even. But yet many traders still struggle with having confidence in their system. They’ve never traded, or haven’t traded it for long. So it’s no wonder.
So how can we grow confidence in our system “before” having the luxury of having traded it for a number of years?
Well, the best way to build confidence in my opinion is to backtest.
Think about it. How can you be confident in a system that you haven’t tested against historical data? Backtesting will show you your systems worst runs, best runs, worst loss, best win, typical stop loss required, and so much more. But more importantly, once you know those things, you know what to expect from it going forward. You’ll know that a 4 trade losing run is standard, preventing you from falling off the tracks when it happens. You’ll freak out far less at a 6 trade losing run if you know the system has seen worse in the past and still ended up profitable.
Now obviously we can’t read the future. We don’t know what’s around the corner for any system. But this is the best way to build confidence other than the experience of actually trading it. Backtesting is the next best thing.